BMA Today for September 3, 2010 
 
     FRIDAY 3 September 2010 
 
 

 

   

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At a Glance

Previous Market Session

Local Market    
 KSE 100 9,762.89

27.51
 KSE T. Value PKRbn 1.85

0.57
 10YR PIB 13.13

0
 6M KIBOR 12.87

0.01
 PKR/USD 85.25

0
Asia Pacific    
 BSE SENSEX 30 18,238.31

32.41
 NIKKEI 225 9,062.84

135.82
 STRAITS TIMES INDEX 2,986.66

3.83
 KUALA LUMPUR 1,441.07

9.11
 JAKARTA COMP. 3,122.15

13.17
 THAI SET 50 919.70

1.27
Middle East    
 DFM GENERAL 1,492.31

5.64
 TADAWUL ALL SHARE 6,158.99

0
 MSM30 INDEX 6,259.95

0.3
 KUWAIT SE WEIGHTED 438.61

2.83
 DSM 20 INDEX 7,305.96

55.35
Global Markets    
 OIL (NYMEX) 75.02

1.11
 US 10YrBOND 2.86

0
 LIBOR6MTH 0.5

0
 FTSE 100 5,371.04

4.63
 DOWJONES 10,320.10

50.63
 S&P 500 1,090.10

9.81
       
 
In Focus
Economy & Strategy: Pakistan Fights to Stay Afloat

   According to estimates from Ministry of Agriculture, assessed losses may cross PKR240bn (USD2.9bn). Value erosion from major crops alone sums to PKR180bn or 3% of GDP (initially expected growth of 4.5% was to add PKR255bn to GDP during FY11)

   We thus expect GDP to grow by 2.1% in FY10 followed by 4.1% in FY10 while inflation to peak at 17-18% during FY11

   In Pre-flood scenario, govt. was estimating fiscal deficit of PKR780bn for FY11 - 4% of GDP. Potential shortfall in tax collection is estimated at PKR60bn in the current scenario which is expected to curtail tax to GDP under 10%

   IMF is to provide USD450mn in Immediate Emergency Assistance to Pakistan and seems committed to work towards Completion of Stand-By Arrangement Program Review. Other outcomes of the ongoing review include 200bps relaxation in fiscal deficit

   Overall investment theme for Pakistan equities stay intact which is largely driven by domestic demand, favorable demographics and rich natural resources

   For the rest of the 2010 however, equity markets may continue to remain hostage to negative news flow emanating from the situation. Moreover, concerns on rising inflation and fiscal deficit and consequent risk of SBP further tightening the monetary environment will continue to loom over investor sentiments

   We thus believe that our initially set KSE100 target of 11,500 may not be met during 2010 while upside risks to this thesis largely rest on introduction of a timely and effective leverage tool i.e. Margin Trading System

   Kindly refer to our detailed report to be released shortly

Click to Read More

Media Watch

Equity: AHSL, MCB sign accord \ The Financial Daily

Economy: IMF to urgently grant $450mn aid \ The Financial Daily
Sectoral: Moody’s issues 5 Pak banks’ rating \ The Financial Daily
Click to Read More

Trailblazer
Resistance remains firm


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  Previous Session
Equity Round Up
Choppy day at the bourses

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Forex Round Up
PKR is expected to trade between 85.55-85.75

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Fixed Income Round Up
Rates are expected to trend upwards

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DISCLAIMER
This memorandum is produced by BMA Capital Management Limited and is only for the use of their clients. While the information contained herein is from sources believed reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed may be revised at any time. This memorandum is for information only and is not an offer to buy or sell, or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.